Each Sunday, I check the weekly sales listings in the SF Chron to see how things are shaking in the ol' zip code. It's a not-bad way to gauge two things: how long a house stays on the market, and what it sells for relative to its asking price. It's also a fun way to keep up with the market: this house went on the market within days after we made the offer on ours, and it's now back -- all spruced up -- at a much higher price than in August. I'll be curious to see how it does this time.
Whether or not real estate investors are beginning to get burned is a growing story, I think. BW's "Bubble, Bubble, Then Trouble" (Dec 19, 05) provides a telling example:
Jim Williams, executive vice-president of the Northern Virginia Building Industry Assn., knew the "feeding frenzy" had gotten out of hand when a waiter in a restaurant he frequents confided that he had bought four houses on spec. "I'm sitting looking at him and thinking even with tips...he must be dying on the vine." Now, investors' scramble for the exits is creating problems for owners like Omar Singh, 29, owner of a trucking company in Herndon. His townhouse in Sterling has been on the market for $525,000 since October. He's hoping to hold out without cutting his asking price until April. But, he says, "I might not be able to."
Buying FOUR houses on spec? With what? Then again, I thought the same thing after reading "Buy, Borrow, Buy" in the Dec 9, 05 SFChron:
In the three years since Sacco and McCook put their faith in real estate, the couple have embarked on what might conservatively be called an E-ticket ride, pulling equity from appreciating properties to provide down payments for the next investment. They have bought eight vacation properties - four homes in Florida, three in California and 100 raw acres on top of a mountain in Lake County.
[...]
Sacco estimates that along with McCook's mother, who has been a silent partner, they've made $1.3 million since they began their buying spree, but all of this is still in equity on their properties. Their monthly reality is more sobering. They have $2.3 million in mortgage debt and negative cash flow that ranges from $5,000 to $15,000 monthly depending on the season.
So how do they pay the bills?
"We sort of count our equity loans as our income," she says, with the slightest wince. "If we had real jobs, we'd be fine, but we just need to get some money in. Some people call it a pyramid, but I don't like to think about it that way."
These sorts of investors are the people to watch as the market adjusts in 06, I think.
FWW, Behind the Mortgage's bubble coverage is very well done. After the jump, how some markets are heating up or cooling down, according to "The Ups And Downs of Home Prices" (BW, Dec 19, 05) ...
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