It started this morning with a press release and a pitch "Company Reports Triple Activity of Families Escaping Car Leases to Share One Family Car," so more Americans are becoming single-car households.
Single-car households, you say? So I read the release and confirmed that the numbers on this automotive downsizing only reflected leasing. Is this indicative of a trend across all U.S. households? I wondered.
I then did the following:
1. Looked for a breakdown of auto leasers versus those who buy. Found: a Cars.com article asserting that only 1 in every 5 auto purchasers goes for leasing over buying. So we're already seeing an indication that leasing is not an "average American" option, but something that suggests a specific group of buyers.
2. Asked myself: Is there anything else that might explain why consumers are more likely to lease a car than buy it outright? Found: a Bureau of Labor and Statistics report (PDF!) on the demographic breakdown of new-car purchasers versus used-car purchases versus car leasers. I confirmed the 1-in-5 statistic, then noticed a call-out in the report: auto leasers had the lowest up-front and monthly expenses, but the highest median incomes.
3. Asked myself: If auto leasers have the lowest expenses and highest incomes, what would account for a spike in lease buybacks? Especially since all other car sales are flattening out? I don't know. My hypothesis: the people who lease cars may be overextended and facing a credit crunch. Or they're preparing to move their money into the purchase of an asset compared to a service.
4. Wrote a blog entry for the SFGate with these links and this line of reasoning.
5. Checked Google news for other takes and noted that I have exactly the opposite take from the fine folks at Forbes and the Big Money. Went into a fit of professional second-guessing.
Why am I sharing all this with you? Because I wanted to be transparent and show you how one reporter and blogger tries to figure out what the numbers really mean. And because I wanted to tell you, the readers, this: I understand how frustrating it can be when you can't get one straight story from the media. I do. And as someone on the other side, it can be frustrating trying to figure out what that story is.
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